Decreases Expected in Area, Yields and Production in 2018/19

Date Posted: 01 oct., 2018
For Immediate Release  

Executive Summary
Highlights from the October edition regarding the 2018/19 season:
  • Global cotton area projected to decrease 2% to 33.4 million tonnes 
  • Global yields expected to decrease 1% to 777 kg per hectare  
  • Global production projected to decrease 4% to 26 million tonnes
  • Stocks in China are at their lowest level since 2011/12 
  •  
Decreases Expected in Area, Yields and Production in 2018/19
 
Many aspects of the global cotton industry are expected to decline in 2018/19, including area, yields, production and stocks: 
  • Global cotton area is currently projected to decrease by 2% to 33.4 million hectares. 
  • Global yields are expected to decline by 1% to 777 kg per hectare, remaining close to the 10-year average of 770 kg per hectare.
  • Global production is projected to decrease by 4% to 26 million tonnes.
  • Global stocks are expected to decline to 17.2 million tonnes.
The decrease in stocks come from China, with the rest of the world’s inventory remaining steady at 10.2 million tonnes. With only 7.1 million tonnes in its warehouses — the lowest number since 2011/12 — China is expected to import 2 million tonnes of fibre for its mills in 2018/19.
Despite an expected 2% decrease, India will remain the world leader in cotton plantings with 11.9 million hectares. The United States is expected to remain the world’s top exporter at 3.5 million tonnes, and the second- and third-largest importers (after China) are expected to be Bangladesh and Vietnam at 1.8 million tonnes and 1.7 million tonnes, respectively


WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
               
  2016/17 2017/18 2018/19   2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
          Changes from previous month
  Million Tonnes   Million Tonnes
               
Production 23.08 26.91 25.96   0.00 0.23 -0.02
Consumption 24.52 26.91 27.60   0.00 -0.02 -0.20
Imports 8.12 9.03 9.93   -0.01 0.03 0.28
Exports 8.19 9.03 9.93   -0.01 0.03 0.28
Ending Stocks 18.80 18.80 17.16   0.00 0.06 0.24
               
Cotlook A Index* 83 88 90*        
 
*The price projection for 2018/19 is based on the ending stocks-to-mill use ratio in the world-less-China in 2016/17 (estimate), in 2017/18 (estimate) and in 2018/19 (projection), on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2017/18 (estimate) and 2018/19 (projection), and the average price of 2017/18. Projection reflects 95% confidence interval.
 
Published at the start of each month by the Secretariat of the International Cotton Advisory Committee,
1629 K Street NW, Suite 702, Washington, DC 20006. Copyright © ICAC 2018.
No reproduction is permitted in whole or part without the express consent of the Secretariat.


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About the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC)
Formed in 1939, the ICAC is an association of cotton producing, consuming and trading countries. It acts as a catalyst for change by helping member countries maintain a healthy world cotton economy; provides transparency to the world cotton market by serving as a clearinghouse for technical information on cotton production; and serves as a forum for discussing cotton issues of international significance. The ICAC does not have a role in setting market prices or in intervening in market mechanisms. For more information, please visit www.icac.org.



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