For Immediate Release
Executive Summary
Highlights from the September edition regarding the 2018/19 season:
-
Global production projected to decrease 3% to 26 million tonnes
-
Consumption is projected to increase 3% to 27.8 million tonnes
-
Global stocks are expected to decrease 10% to 16.9 million tonnes
-
Stocks in China are poised for a 23% decline to 6.6 million tonnes
Global Stocks Projected to Decrease 10% in 2018/19
The 2018/19 season is projected to see a 3% decrease in production, a 3% increase in consumption, and a 10% drop in global stocks, which would bring the world’s cotton reserves down to a level not seen since the 2011/12 season. The global stocks-to-use ratio is expected to drop to about seven months of mill use (0.61).
The decrease in global stocks will largely come from a drawdown in China’s warehouses. From March through August 2018, the Chinese State Reserve sold more than 2 million tonnes of fibre, reducing stocks to about 8.6 million tonnes. If production and consumption remain at current projected levels, the 2018/19 season is expected to further reduce stocks in China to 6.6 million tonnes, reflecting a 23% decline.
Stocks outside of China are trending in the opposite direction, increasing 24% in 2017/18 to 10.1 million tonnes. The increase is expected to slow in 2018/19, ticking upward to 10.2 million tonnes. By the end of the coming season, warehouses outside of China are expected to house about 61% of the world’s global reserves.
Ending stocks in China reflect growing mill use in China and may signal the possibility of increased imports in 2018/19. Growing global demand in 2018/19, despite uncertainty about trade policies, may lead to price increases amidst a possible global production decrease.
WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2016/17 |
2017/18 |
2018/19 |
|
2016/17 |
2017/18 |
2018/19 |
|
|
|
|
|
Changes from previous month |
|
Million Tons |
|
Million Tons |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
23.08 |
26.87 |
25.98 |
|
0.00 |
0.23 |
0.04 |
Consumption |
24.52 |
26.93 |
27.80 |
|
0.00 |
0.78 |
0.38 |
Imports |
8.12 |
9.00 |
9.65 |
|
0.00 |
0.01 |
0.33 |
Exports |
8.19 |
9.00 |
9.65 |
|
0.00 |
0.01 |
0.33 |
Ending Stocks |
18.80 |
18.74 |
16.91 |
|
0.00 |
-0.54 |
-0.88 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cotlook A Index* |
83 |
95 |
88* |
|
|
|
|
To view or subscribe to the September 2018 edition of Cotton This Month, please click one of the links below:
Arabic:
https://www.icac.org/login?url=%2Fpubdetail.php%3Fid%3DP0000107
English:
https://www.icac.org/login?url=%2Fpubdetail.php%3Fid%3DP0000035
French:
https://www.icac.org/login?url=%2Fpubdetail.php%3Fid%3DP0000014
Russian:
https://www.icac.org/login?url=%2Fpubdetail.php%3Fid%3DP0000016
Spanish:
https://www.icac.org/login?url=%2Fpubdetail.php%3Fid%3DP0000038
About the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC)
Formed in 1939, the ICAC is an association of cotton producing, consuming and trading countries. It acts as a catalyst for change by helping member countries maintain a healthy world cotton economy; provides transparency to the world cotton market by serving as a clearinghouse for technical information on cotton production; and serves as a forum for discussing cotton issues of international significance. The ICAC does not have a role in setting market prices or in intervening in market mechanisms. For more information, please visit www.icac.org.